Optimists in the Federal Coalition believe that come September, its election win will be so strong it will kill off future Labor leaders.
LEIGH SALES, PRESENTER: Optimists in the federal Coalition believe that come September, its election win will be so emphatic that it will kill off future Labor leaders. Nowhere are Liberal hopes higher than in Western Sydney, where Labor holds a swag of seats. The former Immigration Minister Chris Bowen and rising star Ed Husic hold two of them. Both are on margins above seven per cent and should be considered safe, but as political editor Chris Uhlmann found when he spent time with both MPs, neither is feeling secure.
CHRIS UHLMANN, REPORTER: Sydney's sprawling west will be a key battlefield in election 2013.
VOX POP: Liberal at this stage, but I'm not overly impressed with Abbott just yet.
VOX POP II: I prefer none of 'em, to tell ya the truth.
VOX POP III: Julia, bugger off.
CHRIS UHLMANN: Because the Liberal Party aims to storm Labor's heartland. And in its secret dreams, the Coalition sees a chance to kill a generation of budding leaders, like Ed Husic in Chifley. And Chris Bowen in the seat of McMahon.
Chris Bowen's fallen from the national spotlight since he quit the Gillard cabinet. His main focus now is his seat.
Chris Bowen's roots run deep in Fairfield. He was elected to the council at just 22 and mayor by 25. Then he started a program that publicly recognises local achievers like soccer star Harry Kewell, who grew up in the same Smithfield street.
CHRIS BOWEN, LABOR MP FOR MCMAHON: I used to come home from school and study in the backroom and I could hear Harry kicking the soccer ball against the roller door as he practiced and I go to schools and I say, "Look, you just gotta follow your dream."
CHRIS UHLMANN: Here, he's well-known and well-liked and the issues are bread-and-butter politics.
MAN: You've got our support, so good luck with everything.
CHRIS BOWEN: Good on ya.
MAN: What we want you to do though is bring back this commercial sector.
CHRIS BOWEN: Yeah, well, Fairfield's had its issues over the years, hasn't it?
MAN: It'd be nice to see the Fairfield commercial sector back up and running the way it used to be, the vibrant place it was.
CHRIS BOWEN: I remember when I was a kid, we used to come here, Thursday night shopping, ...
MAN: And it was full.
CHRIS BOWEN: ... knocking kerby on the corners and you could not get a parking space.
CHRIS UHLMANN: But Chris Bowen's personal brand isn't the problem in McMahon.
MAN II: Good morning, Chris.
CHRIS BOWEN: Good morning, how are you.
MAN II: I'm glad to see you. And I feel sorry for you for what happened to the Labor Party. They're really s**t. Really.
CHRIS UHLMANN: Even constituents who've had direct assistance from the local member are torn.
MAN III: For me, now I got citizenship, so I want to change the government.
CHRIS UHLMANN: You want to change it?
MAN III: Yeah.
CHRIS UHLMANN: Does that mean changing Chris?
MAN III: No, no, not about this one. Not about this one.
CHRIS UHLMANN: The one glaring omission from Chris Bowen's campaign material is any reference to Labor.
Is the Labor Party a drag on your brand at the moment?
CHRIS BOWEN: Well, the Labor Party is having a tough period, no doubt about that.
CHRIS UHLMANN: The Labor Party absolutely has to hold this ground in Western Sydney if it's to win or stand any chance at the next election. Can the other members and you do that?
CHRIS BOWEN: I believe we can. I believe we all have a fight on our hands, but I believe if you look at Labor's Western Sydney MPs, it's a great group of people, most of us grew up here, raising families here, dedicated to Western Sydney because we believe in Western Sydney, we believe in making a difference, and I believe that message, that story will at the end of the day win out on election day.
CHRIS UHLMANN: The Liberal candidate for McMahon is Ray King. He's police commander at Liverpool, but the Liberal Party says that as a serving officer, he can't be interviewed until he takes leave from the force.
CHRIS BOWEN: I think that says it all, doesn't it? I mean, you can't speak up for your area if you're not allowed to speak out.
CHRIS UHLMANN: There's obvious no reason why university student and candidate for the seat of Chifley, Isabel White, can't be interviewed.
But, when 7.30 asked for an interview with the candidate, the Liberal Party refused.
ED HUSIC, LABOR MEMBER FOR CHIFLEY: At the national level of politics, you'll be pressured and you'll be tested from time to time, as I certainly have in terms of representing the issues that are near and dear to me. You can't speak up if you don't front up.
CHRIS UHLMANN: In recent weeks, Ed Husic's been shirt-fronting his own government, questioning cuts to single mother benefits and attacking a $20 million grant to lure Disney to shoot a movie in Sydney when his local hospital can't get an MRI scanner.
Is there an advantage for you though in being seen to campaign against the Gillard Government?
ED HUSIC: Well, I've taken the approach all along that if I thought that our community was not getting its fair share, I'd speak up.
CHRIS UHLMANN: In January, Ed Husic fought Government cuts to a cash-strapped program that supports 90 families.
WOMAN: Learning Ground is a behavioural management program which helps families, not just kids, with behavioural problems.
CHRIS UHLMANN: 80 per cent of Learning Ground's families are Aboriginal. It has one part-time paid worker, costs just $250,000 a year to run and much of that is raised privately. Yet, at the start of the year, its Commonwealth funding was cut without notice and the entire program was threatened.
ED HUSIC: The pressure was well and truly on to actually - because the term was gonna start and the doors woulda been shut. So, what we have to do is just find some funding source.
WOMAN: You know, dog with a bone, he was just amazing. Wasn't gonna let it happen.
CHRIS UHLMANN: So with more money secured, Learning Ground's tenuous existence is assured for another two years.
WOMAN II: Thanks to these ladies, I've turned my life around. Now I'm trynna give back.
CHRIS UHLMANN: In normal times, neither Ed Husic or Chris Bowen would be under threat. Each holds his seat with a healthy margin. But Labor's stocks in NSW are at an historic low and it is being blamed for a multitude of real and imagined woes.
MAN III: The economy is getting worse day by day, because the Government spend too much money and there is no work.
CHRIS UHLMANN: Is it Julia Gillard you don't like?
VOX POP IV: Yeah. A lot of things are wrong, the way she chooses things, especially for families. Everything is so expensive and everything is much more dearer than a few years ago.
CHRIS UHLMANN: It's too early to start tallying the price Labor might pay in Western Sydney at an election still five months away. But right now, the sitting MPs believe there's no such thing as a safe seat.
LEIGH SALES: Political editor Chris Uhlmann.
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