THE hands of Nash Rawiller, particularly on More Joyous, could repel the three-year-old challenge at Saturday's Rosehill Gardens meeting, certainly the best in Australia so far this year.
More Joyous takes on three-year-old stablemate Pierro, a prized member of the Gai Waterhouse bandwagon and rated the best of his age in the Free Handicap, for what promises to be a battle of tactics in the group 1 Canterbury Stakes. Moment Of Change is also a contender.
The same applies to the Coolmore, another at the elite level, in which Rawiller will attempt to control the tempo on the mare Steps In Time but the fillies are expected to be hot on his heels.
Gary Crispe, the figures man behind Racing And Sports, says Pierro hasn't returned to the high rating he had as a two-year-old and, under the circumstances, More Joyous is a better prospect to be near her best, but Moment Of Change is also a strong chance.
Dom Beirne (Betfair) has identified Moment Of Change ($4.50) as "super value" for an event that provides "an intriguing speed map''. ''The one at some risk may be Pierro if jockey Nash Rawiller deploys his usual tactic of staying away from the fence on the great mare More Joyous," he said.
Beirne reckons Rain Affair will run along. "There is no reason why Moment Of Change should race any closer than a length-and-a-half behind him.''
No doubt More Joyous is better in the autumn and much superior in Sydney to Melbourne. She has won 11 at Rosehill and the past two Canterbury Stakes. Everything she has done recently indicates the mare is near her best, a 124 rating.
Moment Of Change made a considerable impression on me in the Newmarket, with the possibility of improvement, and he can do better than his 109 assessment.
Alas, Pierro (114), gallant but thoroughly tested when resuming in the Hobartville, is a query. Will the effort on a heavy track bring him on or take something away? The colt has to come back from 1400 metres to 1300m. The return of blinkers could assist. Jim Cassidy will launch him from seven, while Rawiller comes from a more comfortable four. Rawiller, with a wonderful understanding of More Joyous, has to match a master tactician but the old fella is having his first ride on Pierro.
Verdict: More Joyous ($2.50).
TEMPO THE KEY
The three-year-old menace looms large for Steps In Time in the Coolmore over 1500m, a distance too far for her in the same race last year. Cassidy will be coming with a late run on the filly Dear Demi, while the Bart Cummings timing keeps Norzita to the fore. Norzita wouldn't win on her last-start Flemington effort behind Flying Snitzel, a rival again, but that wasn't a group 1. Beirne regards Bennetta ($8), another three-year-old, as the "best value". Despite trainer John O'Shea bleating about the weight given Steps In Time, she is bold and fast. With Rawiller controlling the tempo, she will be hard to run down.
Verdict: Steps In Time ($5.50).
JUST QUIETLY
Three-year-old Fiveandahalfstar can "regress two lengths" on his Australian Cup effort and still be the main force in the Ranvet, Beirne says. "I'm not fussed whether the three-year-old ends up leading, as he's probably looking for 2400m by now," he said. ''But the best of him was clearly seen when ridden with a neat trail." Beirne is tipping Mawingo to improve but Silent Achiever should be considered. ''Underrated New Zealand mare set to peak here third-up,'' Gerard Twomey (IASbet) said on the Racenet poll of leading betting houses. "Her form last autumn through Ocean Park makes her look very attractive." Certainly Silent Achiever's fourth, beaten about a length, in the 1600m Chipping Norton is a strong guide, particularly as she is better suited over the 2000m here.
Verdict: Silent Achiever ($4).
COURSE FACTOR
Will Villa Verde, in the Moet & Chandon, join the ranks of outstanding Victorian two-year-olds which don't bring their form to Sydney? Villa Verde takes on Overreach, which she beat at Caulfield in the spring. Subsequently Overreach was dynamic at Rosehill. Trainer Shaun Dwyer has no doubts about Villa Verde being comfortable the Sydney way after plenty of practice at home in Bendigo. But he is also adamant she is not a 100 per cent - a fitness level she will reach for the Golden Slipper. Still, Rosehill experience could be the big factor here.
Verdict: Overreach ($1.50).
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