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After an unsettling start to the year for Labor MPs, Kevin Rudd is once again back in the equation, writes Alison Carabine. Will the party room hold its nerve in the face of a thumping electoral defeat?
MPs are back in Canberra for the start of the parliamentary year and the unmistakable mood within the Caucus is that the next sitting fortnight could be make-or-break time for the Gillard Government.
The seemingly ever present danger of another Kevin Rudd challenge may never eventuate. But the next few weeks will be crucial in establishing the all-important atmospherics for the marathon election contest as the Prime Minister tries to establish the Government's political supremacy as the days and weeks count down to September 14.
Labor backbenchers have spent the summer months taking the temperature of voters in their electorates. Some have returned to the national capital utterly despondent. "We won't be re-elected. We won't win with Julia at the helm. She is not cutting through in western Sydney or anywhere else for that matter," was one of the more brutal admissions from a despairing Gillard supporter.
And this was before today's Newspoll dumped Labor's primary vote back in to the political killing zone of 32 per cent ... that's just one out of three voters favouring Labor as their first pick.
But there are others within the Government who are more optimistic. And recent history throws up an obvious precedent - John Howard's come from behind win in the 2001 election, aided by the offshore processing debate and terrorists slamming planes into the World Trade Centre.
John Howard had more than just good luck (in the purely political sense). He also had a party united firmly behind his leadership - unity being the key to the Government's survival.
Former Labor leader Simon Crean, who knows a thing or two about division and treachery, has tried to rally the backbench ahead of the resumption of Parliament. The election is still "doable ... it is difficult but we've got to hold our nerve and our conviction."
Some Labor MPs have heeded the message but are nonetheless holding out for the 2013 version of the Tampa or 9/11. Even without remarkable outside intervention, there is still hope Labor can win. One Sydney MP says there "is still a pulse" for the party in his marginal seat: "People want a reason not to vote for Tony Abbott."
But, according to party insiders, nor will there be any reason to vote for Julia Gillard if the Government is plagued by another round of leadership turmoil.
And recent events have conspired to bring Kevin Rudd back in to the equation. As one Rudd supporter boldly declares, "Rudd never went away." Although numbers are not being counted, the Gillard camp rubbishes claims the former prime minister could be within half a dozen votes from retaking his old job.
One Labor MP who is neither Gillard nor Rudd aligned but always "votes for the leader" says the ALP would be reduced to a "cricket team" if the leadership again becomes a battleground. The vicious character assassinations during last year's unsuccessful challenge would once again be unleashed against Kevin Rudd - this time with interest.
Under this doomsday scenario, a Rudd victory would immediately be followed by mass Cabinet resignations starting with Wayne Swan and Stephen Conroy. The political end game would come with Labor being smashed at the ballot box.
But the visceral hatred among some MPs towards Kevin Rudd is not shared by all. And the key to the Labor leadership could once again rest with the New South Wales Right.
The faction's power base is Western Sydney where it holds most of its seats. Western Sydney is shaping up as Labor's Western Front. The Opposition is making a big play for the area which according to Joe Hockey is now "the heartland of the modern Liberal Party". Support for Julia Gillard from the Right could start to haemorrhage in the turf war over the election's "ground zero".
The view within Caucus remains that Julia Gillard will lead Labor to its date with destiny in seven months' time, but no one is willing to make any guarantees.
Events of recent days have been breathtaking: the brutal abandonment of Trish Crossin for Nova Peris; the Prime Minister's "crazy brave" announcement of the poll date; the arrest of Craig Thomson on fraud charges; and the decision by both Chris Evans and Nicola Roxon to quit Cabinet and prepare to leave Parliament altogether.
These events have given Labor MPs a laser focus on the election. There's a growing acceptance Kevin Rudd must play an active role in the campaign. One non-aligned backbencher who has welcomed the former Leader to his marginal Sydney seat on no fewer than three occasions in recent months says he's a great asset to the party.
Even Simon Crean, one of Kevin Rudd's most trenchant frontbench critics, agrees: "He is an asset and we should use him but it has to be a disciplined asset. And I think that's a judgement not just for us to make but also for Kevin to make. And I think if that combination of discipline plus the asset can be agreed upon it would be a fantastic boost to our fortunes."
Caucus members believe the Prime Minister has used her ministerial reshuffle to make overtures of peace and reconciliation. To his great relief, Chris Bowen has been shuffled out of immigration. Other Rudd backers Melissa Parke and Mike Kelly have been promoted.
But the start to the election year has unsettled the party room. "The situation remains fluid," according to one Labor MP. And from a colleague, "It used to be that a week was a long time in politics ... now a single day is akin to eternity."
Alison Carabine is the political editor of RN Breakfast. View her full profile here.
Topics: federal-elections, government-and-politics, federal-election, federal-government
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