The battle for the last finals spot
Rohan Connolly previews the final round of the AFL season.
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IN A NUTSHELL
Hawthorn is welcoming challenges as preparation for its flag tilt. Sydney is struggling to get key players fit for the finals. The Hawks look more settled and complete.
HAWTHORN 5.3 11.3 14.6 18.11 (119)
SYDNEY 1.4 4.5 7.7 12.10 (82)
GOALS Hawthorn: Roughead 4, Hale 3, Gunston 3, Franklin 3, Breust, Hodge, Bailey, Osborne, Burgoyne. Sydney: McGlynn 2, Kennedy 2, O'Keefe 2, Goodes, Bolton, Lamb, White, Parker, Pyke.
BEST Hawthorn: Hodge, Bruest, Gibson, Birchall, Lake, Mitchell. Sydney: Kennedy, McGlynn, Goodes, Pyke, McVeigh, Jack.
UMPIRES Meredith, Dalgleish, Nicholls.
CROWD: 54,725 at MCG.
Photos
"Without Lewis Roberts-Thomson, Rhys Shaw and Alex Johnson, the Swans were shakier than usual in defence and plodding out of it. None are big names, but as a collective, they were a key to the grand final. Jesse White, included late for his first game for a year, could make no impact. The Hawks run deeper, and this night were more precise in every aspect." - Greg Baum.
In the 2001 Elimination Final at Docklands, the Swans led by 19 points at the first change and lost by 55 points. Hawthorns' Mark Graham battles Sydneys' Brett Kirk.
HISTORY
Sydney 67
Hawthorn 84
Draw 2
LAST FIVE
Sydney 2
Hawthorn 3
LAST 10
Sydney 4
Hawthorn 6
SINCE 2008
2008 - 15 Hawks by 31
2009 - 02 Swans by 38
2009 - 11 Hawks by 11
2010 - 10 Hawks by 2
2010 - 19 Swans by 44
2011 - 09 Hawks by 46
2011 - SF Hawks by 36
2012 - 05 Swans by 37
2012 - 22 Hawks by 7
2012 - GF Swans by 10
2013 - 07 Hawks by 37
THE RECENT FORMLINE
Sydney WWWLWL
Hawthorn WWLWWW
AGAINST CURRENT TOP FIVE
Sydney 1-1-3
Hawthorn 2-4
AT ANZ STADIUM:
Sydney v Hawthorn 1-0; Overall 26-17
Hawthorn v Sydney 0-1; Overall 0-1
ON FRIDAY NIGHTS SINCE 2008: Team Games Wins Losses Draws Win Win %
Sydney 8 4 4 0 50%
Hawthorn 29 21 7 1 74%
FINALS
Sydney 2 Hawthorn 2
STAT A FACT?
- The Hawks average the third-most interchange rotations of any side, while the Swans average the second-fewest.
- Across the past three rounds, Hawthorn has won the second-most quarters of any side. Sydney has won the sixth-fewest of any side.
- Sydney ranks third for clearance differentials in the midfield zone, while Hawthorn ranks 13th.
- Sydney and Hawthorn have given away the third-fewest and equal fourth-fewest free kicks in the defensive 50 of any sides.
- Since Round 13, Jarryd Roughead leads the AFL for scoreboard impact and Kurt Tippett ranks third.
- Hawthorn has been in front of its opposition in 75% of all matches – the highest percentage overall. Sydney ranks second in that category, at 72%.
- Sydney’s average winning margin of 47 points is the second-biggest of any side. Hawthorn’s margin of 39 points is the equal-seventh biggest overall.
- Since crossing to Sydney in 2010, Josh Kennedy has averaged 26 disposals, 17 contested possessions, eight clearances and six tackles per game.
Hawthorn's Paul Salmon gets in front during the Hawks' agonising six-point loss at the SCG in the 1996 Qualifying Final.
YOU CAN BET ON IT
Sydney $2.62 (+12.5)
Hawthorn $1.52 (-12.5)
An exotic: Why go past Josh Kennedy for most disposals? The former Hawk turns it on against his former team, averaging 26 possessions, and he has ramped up his form in the past two weeks, with 38 touches against the Saints and 32 against the Cats. He has 41 contested possessions in those two games, and there will be plenty of opportunities for him to dominate the stoppages in what should be a tight pack-heavy game.
Quarter-quad suggestions:
Swans win: 1,2,9,10/1,2,9,10/1,2,3,9/1,2,3
Hawks win: 1,2,3,4/,2,3,4/2,3,4/2,3,4,5
Prolific Swans midfielder Josh Kennedy.
SWANS WIN: Stung by alarming losses to Geelong and Collingwood in recent weeks, and desperate to regain some momentum before the finals, the Sydney midfield swarms a less motivated Hawthorn, White and Tippett take advantage, and the Swans record a morale-boosting, home-crowd pleasing last round win.
HAWKS WIN: The methodical Hawks, regaining lynchpins by the week, are playing at a high-cruising altitude, and in a game where nothing is at stake except bragging rights, and the pressure does not reach finals levels, their skill level is too much for Sydney. They need fewer opportunities to convert their chances, and have enough options in the midfield, and more than enough in their forward line, to keep their noses ahead of the Swans all night.
5/9/1987. Sydney's Greg Williams and Michael Byrne show their disappointment in the change rooms after losing the qualifying final to Hawthorn at VFL Park by 99 points.
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