The former Labor leader and senior minister, Simon Crean, has once more spoken frankly about his party's prospects at the next Federal election. The latest opinion poll again shows the government would face a huge defeat if the figures were to be repeated at the ballot box in September. In an attempt to woo back crucial support in western Sydney, the Prime Minister, Julia Gillard, says she'll base herself there for five days from next Sunday, instead of staying at the usual Prime Ministerial Sydney residence in harbourside Kiribilli.
TransELEANOR HALL: The former Labor leader and Senior Minister, Simon Crean, has once more spoken frankly about his party's prospects at the next Federal Election.
The latest opinion polling again shows that the Government would face a huge defeat if the figures were to be repeated at the ballot box in September.
In an attempt to woo back crucial support in western Sydney, the Prime Minister Julia Gillard will base herself there on Sunday for five days, and won't stay at the usual prime ministerial Sydney residence in harbour side Kirribilli.
Chief political correspondent, Sabra Lane, reports.
SABRA LANE: Like or it not, opinion polls are a part of the political landscape, it's just that these days, there are more of them.
Some are more credible than others, and while politicians publicly say they don't pay any attention to them - privately they do.
Tony Abbott neatly dodged talking about them on ABC Radio in Townsville this morning.
TONY ABBOTT: Polls come and go, they go up and down. I've made it my absolute practice not to comment on them.
SABRA LANE: Newspoll's latest results today pretty much reflect the Nielsen figures last week, and they're all bad for the Government and bad for the Prime Minister. Labor's primary vote is languishing around 31 per cent. On a two-party preferred basis, it's at 45 per cent - 10 points behind the Coalition.
Newspoll's Martin O'Shannessy thinks that nominating the poll date so far out has actually prompted some voters to make up their minds early.
MARTIN O'SHANNESSY: It's one of the risks that Julia Gillard or that Labor had to consider when they set the date so early, that their poor polling position would become ossified, and that seems to be you know, maybe coming on.
We've looked at voter commitment and the top two box, that is, people who are absolutely rusted on and those that are you know, pretty sure, there's only a very slight chance that they'll change, is at 82 per cent.
Now that's the kind of number we'd get in the last 30 days of a campaign. So it's possible that people are settling in and have decided and they've been told the election's on and now they're making their choice.
And I think we've got evidence to suggest that's happening.
SABRA LANE: Regional Australia Minister, Simon Crean.
SIMON CREAN: You can't win with a 31 per cent primary vote, but that's not where we expect to be in September.
SABRA LANE: The independent Senator, Nick Xenophon.
NICK XENOPHON: Look, what I think is interesting is the fact that so many people seem to have now rusted themselves on that are unlikely to change, so this latest, you know, Newspoll isn't so much an opinion poll as a funeral notice. It is pretty grim for the Government and I think that the voters haven't so much got baseball bats behind their backs waiting for the election date, but some of them have got almost a nuclear missile.
So I think it's pretty ugly and I don't know what - it'd be interesting to see the response the Prime Minister gets at Rooty Hill in the western suburbs of Sydney in the next few days, and I guess we'll wait and see.
SABRA LANE: That reference to Rooty Hill is a reference to the Prime Minister deciding to go west next week, to Western Sydney for five days. She'll even stay out there, eschewing the PM's official residence at Kirribilli.
It's an attempt to woo back voters in crucial marginal electorates in that area.
In Western Sydney, Labor currently holds five seats on margins under 5 per cent. Another five electorates usually considered 'safe', are on margins between 6 and 10 per cent; Labor MPs are anxious that given current polling, most of them could be lost in September.
Senator Doug Cameron lives in Sydney's west.
DOUG CAMERON: We're in a bit of trouble in western Sydney but we've just got to cut through the nonsense that's been perpetuated by the Coalition on a range of our policies. We are the party that's looking after jobs, we are the party that's saying that Australians should get jobs in the mining sector and in the construction sector.
SABRA LANE: Senator Cameron spoke to Fairfax.
The former federal Labor minister and now commentator on Sky, Graham Richardson, says he thinks it's a waste of time.
GRAHAM RICHARDSON: Mate, five days in Rooty Hill will not be enough, let me assure you. Western Sydney is a disaster area, the swings there are probably in excess of 10 per cent. I have to say that every single seat in Sydney is at risk and I don't think that a few days from Julia Gillard will do much good.
In fact, it may well do the opposite.
SABRA LANE: Some ministers though believe once the Government's policies are clearly explained to voters, that their fortunes will change; Greg Combet is one of them.
GREG COMBET: We've just got a fight on our hands, we know that very clearly.
SABRA LANE: Mr Combet's in Adelaide explaining the Government's recently released innovation policy, and opening up the consultation process on where the Government should locate 10 new innovation hubs around the nation.
GREG COMBET: And so we're going to get around very busily over the next six or seven months, I'll be visiting countless manufacturing workplaces to explain to people what we're doing to support their jobs.
The Prime Minister's going to be doing that in western Sydney in the coming week, and we'll be going around the country explaining to people and ultimately that's what matters. It's not the superficiality of politics in Canberra and who said what to who.
SABRA LANE: Simon Crean too says explaining and selling Labor's policies will be the key to winning votes.
SIMON CREAN: We've got six months. But unless we get focused on those issues that I talked about before, the changing nature of the economy, the need to adapt, the need to position, the need to understand the importance of innovation policies that we've put out - unless we focus on those in terms of getting the message out, well, we'll continue to go around in circles.
SABRA LANE: And with a lot of explaining to do during the months ahead, it sounds like the days of governing have been quickly subsumed by the days of campaigning.
ELEANOR HALL: Sabra Lane reporting.
No comments:
Post a Comment