THE Labor Party has a major problem in Sydney. The electoral reality for the federal government right now is that whilst it has narrowed the margin between itself and the Coalition nationally, according to opinion polls, in key seats in and around Sydney Labor is struggling badly.
The Labor Party has a major problem in Sydney. The electoral reality for the federal government right now is that whilst it has narrowed the margin between itself and the Coalition nationally, according to opinion polls, in key seats in and around Sydney Labor is struggling badly.
The problem areas are western and southern Sydney, and seats on margins of less 10 per cent look at serious risk.
There are no less than a dozen seats held by Labor that fall into this category in these areas alone.
And the problem for Labor in these key marginal electorates is not just about the mathematics of winning.
The issues of interest to voters are stacked against Labor being able to correct the problem. The carbon tax might be fading from people's fears in other parts of the country, but this is not the case in Sydney. Cost-of-living pressures matter in Australia's largest city. Added to that is the ongoing messiness of dealing with the surge in asylum seeker arrivals.
Then there is the downright corrupt leftovers of the NSW Labor government's time in power.
The ICAC hearing into the alleged actions of Eddie Obeid and other former state Labor ministers is a stain on the ALP, whether or not charges are laid, and there is nothing Julia Gillard can do about that.
The first step in any rehabilitation program is conceding that one has a problem, but the Prime Minister's team isn't prepared to admit that Labor is struggling in and around Sydney because that would invite discussions about how to solve the problem, which just might revive leadership talk.
It's no secret that some of Kevin Rudd's strongest backers are based in NSW. Senior ministers, former ministers and factional powerbrokers like Chris Bowen, Robert McClelland and Joel Fitzgibbon from the influential Right, and their left-wing equivalents such as Anthony Albanese and Doug Cameron. Then there is close friend and up-and-comer of the NSW Right, Ed Husic, whose electorate of Chifley is located in the heart of the government's polling problems.
The PM is worried that if she admits Labor has major problems in NSW, and the internal polling shows that the slump in the party's support threatens many an MP's chance of retaining their seat, then there is a chance that NSW MPs who stood by her in February will begin to waver.
I'm talking about ministers like David Bradbury, who has a bright parliamentary future as long as he can hold his seat of Lindsay, which sits on a difficult margin of just 1.1 per cent. Or the member for Parramatta, Julie Owens, one of the few Labor MPs with a genuine small business background, whose seat has a margin of 4.4 per cent. Even the Environment Minister Tony Burke's seat of Watson (9.1 per cent) is believed to have problems.
Self-interest and survival are powerful motivators to bring back Rudd if evidence mounts that doing so would improve electoral fortunes.
In Sydney there are plenty of MPs whose futures are on the line.
The PM has to hope that those who control the internal polling stay loyal to her.
Dr Peter van Onselen is The Sunday Telegraph's political commentator and a university professor.
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